Greece at a crossroads

The next couple of weeks are crucial for Greece, as the prime minister will have to sit down with the representatives of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to negotiate a new memorandum that will ensure the country’s funding over the next two years.

There are three major thorns in this negotiation: demands for the closure of state organizations, which will involve people being fired; the insistence of providing collateral in return for any new loans, and the existing, painful reforms for 2011.

The government needs to read the troika’s red lines carefully and to put up a fight in order to win over the public on the domestic front, but ultimately it will end up with a new memorandum.

Meanwhile, another significant negotiation is unfolding that promises incredible complications, and this is over a “Vienna 2” agreement that will convince our lenders to extend the maturities of bonds that have to be paid out on within the next two years.

For these two negotiations to succeed -- for Greece to get the funding package and to restructure its debt -- George Papandreou will need to accept a series of painful measures and push them through Parliament. The path of the negotiations is strewn with land mines, however. For one, the mood toward Greece in some European governments is very negative and we cannot know what they may ask of Athens in exchange for more assistance. Also, there is a sense that the troika will insist on ensuring the support of opposition leader Antonis Samaras before it agrees to anything new.

The next potential obstacle comes from within the ruling PASOK party where there are certain members who are like hair-triggers and may go off if they see a single employee fired from a state-owned company, as well as others who are only just beginning to realize that they are in the wrong job. Which of them will go off and how remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, all of this is happening on a backdrop of incredible social instability and tension. Over the next few days we will inevitably see more protests, more blockades on highways and at ports. The country will look like it is on the verge of being ungovernable. Banks are also at breaking point, while people are getting desperate and don’t know where to reach out for a lifeline. The government has lost its credibility and now, because it took so long to take any real decisions, it is at risk of having to face a tsunami of public discontent that will be deaf to any appeals.

Sussex Socialist Resistance: Fourth International in Britain ...

The unions have to be able to reach out to the local communities they serve, including the youth, pensioners, the unemployed, women, members of ethnic communities and the gay community. They have to be able to show that they are able to unite all of us in the fightback against the austerity measures and that there is an alternative to cuts. It is in the interest of all of us to support our unions and to ensure that our unions fully represent us. The building of support for initiatives around the joint day of action on 30th June by the unions will show that Cameron and co do not have the answers that are acceptable to us. From Greece, Spain and Southampton, workers organisations refuse to pay the price for the crisis caused by the bankers. Whilst City profits increase and the shares on the Stock Exchange go up in value at our expense, trade unionists are saying " put people before profit".

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