As Perry waits, early states already taking shape

Gov. Rick Perry will look like a candidate for national office this week when he speaks to sympathetic crowds in Los Angeles, New York and New Orleans.

Yet he hasn't announced any trips to Iowa or New Hampshire, sites of the first two presidential nominating contests.

Perry's itinerary symbolizes the mixed signals he is sending about whether he will run for president. The media tour he used to promote his book last fall, numerous trips to Washington and California in recent months and this week's speeches all point to someone determined to build a national brand.

But Perry has long enjoyed speaking to conservative groups around the country, even before a bid for the Republican presidential nomination was on the table.

He is talking about running for president in private conversations more than he has previously, and he sees a path to the nomination if he gets in, but several Perry insiders still wonder — and Perry himself might wonder — whether he actually wants to run. And until he makes that decision, much of the planning required of a presidential race is on hold.

Perry might be moving toward a presidential campaign, but he isn't sprinting, and that raises an important question: How long can he wait? A number of experts in states that hold early caucuses and primaries say Perry can still get in and win. But he'd better hurry.

"Every day costs him a little bit," said Robert Oldendick, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina. "But he's got a couple of months before he hits that deadline."

Perry ran something of an unconventional re-election campaign in 2010. He snubbed newspaper editorial boards, refused to debate his Democratic opponent and had little use for yard signs and campaign mail. That race gave his team a certain bravado, which might be why it's unfazed by the fact that other candidates have been building to the 2012 election for years.

Perry insiders are confident that there is ample time to launch a winning campaign. He could not use the $2.7 million sitting in his state campaign account in a federal race, but he would begin with a network he's built through 10 years as governor of a major, business-friendly state and two stints as the chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

Plus, there is an opening in the race for a fiery governor from the South who has appeal to social and fiscal conservatives. And the Texas vs. Washington message that he used throughout the 2010 campaign would transfer rather easily to a national race.

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